Legco of Hong Kong voted down government's proposal, which involved the new procedure of electing Chief Executive and Legislator. This made the democratic destiny of HK be stranded again into the uncertainties. Last night, I was watching the live coverage of Legco's vote. The final result was not suspensive on the last day, because the people who were hesitant seemed to be determined. I am thinking what most matters after all about the whole process.
Government officials blamed Bishop Zen and Legislator Martin Lee that they should be responsible for the standoff. In other words, are the two persons who influenced the final results and turned the scales? Otherwise, is it like what MingPao said today, that is, it was because of the Three Bundle of Cigarettes including Bishop Zen, former chief secretary, Anson Chan and Next Media's Chairman, Jimmy Lai. We should remember the advertising war waged by Jimmy Lai in the late October. We also remember Bishop summoned all the pan-democratic members and called on his followers to protest on Dec.4th. We must remember Anson Chan joined the big march, and also held the press conference later to publicly express the disapproval of government's proposal. It seems to be so. However, can they influence those legislators? If it's in the western countries, we gotta say of course it is; because constituencies' will influence legislators'. HK doesn't embrace full democracy yet, who on earth influences whom? I'd like to anatomize the vote behind the scene next.
The total number of 60 legislators in HK composes of 30 persons by direction election in the respective constituencies and of the rest by functional constituencies. In the Legco election in 2004, pro-democratic camp won the 60% of the votes in the direct election, while pro-Beijing camp won the 77% of the votes in the election of functional constituencies. Before the vote on the proposals, government can definitely get 11 votes from pro-Beijing legislators who come from direct election, plus 23 votes from pro-Beijing legislators who come from functional constituencies. The eight independent legislators without party background had become the determinant factor. But the four who come from direct election won't definitely vote for the proposal, because they knew what their constituencies thought. The result is that one of them abstained (I think he took both his political wisdom and risk). Until now, there has been not any chance for government to win the 2/3 votes to pass the proposal. The rest in the functional constituencies hadn't mattered to the whole situation. The media in Hk said the legislator from the Accountant field is the miss democracy. That's too sensational, too much to say that. We can see a reality from the vote, there are seven fields in the functional constituencies are the democratic power, which represents 25% of the total number of 28 functional fields. The government's proposal about the Legco increased the total seats from 60 to 70, and five of them are from direct election; the rest of them are from district council members. However, 102 of the total 529 district council members are appointed by Chief Executive. That is why many people oppose to the proposal and call for universal suffrage. I dare say Beijing would compromise, and HK government would give the new proposal which both sides can accept. When will be the universal suffrage for HK? 2007/2008? 2012? Judged by the current information, 2012 seems to be more possible. You bet? I just hope so.